The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Callum Turner 48% −2
- Jack Lowden 42% −2
- Jack O'Connell 11% +2
- Jack Barton 10% +2
- George MacKay 9% —
- Jacob Elordi 5.5% +4
- Josh O'Connor 5% −3
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson 4.5% −5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$2.4M
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Callum Turner, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 44% · Sep 29: 40% · Sep 30: 38% · Oct 1: 36% · Oct 2: 41% · Oct 3: 45% · Oct 4: 43% · Oct 5: 47%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Callum Turner; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Callum Turner is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
Settlement sources: Variety
See it on Kalshi ↗