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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

The market puts it at 3.4% — a long shot, about one in 29 — on Polymarket, as of Nov 5, 15:17 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 3.4% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 15:17 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.4% +1
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$81K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 53%

Oct 29: 3.7% · Oct 30: 3.1% · Oct 31: 3.4% · Nov 1: 3.1% · Nov 2: 3.1% · Nov 3: 2.7% · Nov 4: 2.7% · Nov 5: 3.4%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail/prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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