The odds
as of Nov 3, 11:16 UTC- Fresno 50% −20
- San Bernardino 46% —
- Orange 45% −9
- San Joaquin 41% −2
- Riverside 40% −13
- San Luis Obispo 11% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days−17 pts
Fresno, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 65% · Oct 28: 70% · Oct 29: 73% · Oct 30: 71% · Oct 31: 71% · Nov 1: 75% · Nov 2: 51% · Nov 3: 50%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Fresno; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial general election in Fresno County, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: California Secretary of State; San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters; Orange County Registrar of Voters; Riverside County Registrar of Voters; San Bernardino County Registrar of Voters; San Luis Obispo County Clerk-Recorder-Registrar
See it on Kalshi ↗