The odds
as of Nov 5, 10:17 UTC- At least 46% 0% —
- At least 48% 0% —
- At least 50% 1.5% —
- At least 52% 1% −1
- At least 54% 1% −1
- At least 56% 1% −1
- At least 58% 1% −2
- At least 60% 1% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−59 pts
At least 50%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 60% · Oct 30: 60% · Oct 31: 59% · Nov 1: 59% · Nov 2: 59% · Nov 3: 52% · Nov 4: 2.5% · Nov 5: 35%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 50%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jeff Van Drew in the 2026 NJ-02 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jeff Van Drew ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Division of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Trenton, NJ
See it on Kalshi ↗