The odds
as of Nov 3, 21:15 UTC- At least 44% 92% +1.5
- At least 46% 85% —
- At least 48% 75% −1
- At least 50% 63% +5
- At least 52% 45% −1
- At least 54% 32% −6
- At least 56% 24% −7
- At least 58% 20% +3
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
At least 44%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 88% · Oct 28: 89% · Oct 29: 90% · Oct 30: 91% · Oct 31: 90% · Nov 1: 91% · Nov 2: 90% · Nov 3: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 44%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Brandon Herrera in the 2026 TX-23 House election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Brandon Herrera ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Austin, TX
See it on Kalshi ↗