The odds
as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC- At least 26% 97% +1.5
- At least 28% 2% —
- At least 30% 1.5% −67
- At least 32% 1% −56
- At least 34% 1% —
- At least 36% 1.5% —
- At least 38% 1.5% —
- At least 40% 1.5% −10
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+45 pts
At least 26%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 97% · Oct 30: 97% · Nov 2: 97% · Nov 3: 97% · Nov 4: 63% · Nov 5: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 26%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Gary Cordery in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Gary Cordery ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Office of Elections, Honolulu, HI
See it on Kalshi ↗