The odds
as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC- Talarico by 10-15 24% +17
- Talarico by 5-10 22% —
- Talarico by 0-5 20% —
- Raman by 0-5 14% —
- Raman by 5-10 14% —
- Talarico by 15+ 5% —
- Raman by 10-15 2.5% —
- Raman by 15+ 1.5% —
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−26 pts
Talarico by 10-15, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 7.5% · Oct 29: 7.5% · Oct 30: 24%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Talarico by 10-15; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If James Talarico's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election minus Nithya Raman's margin in the Los Angeles mayoral election is between 10 and 15 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number.
Settlement sources: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk; Texas Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗