The odds
as of Nov 3, 05:17 UTC- Sand by 6-9 28% −1
- Sand by 3-6 28% +2
- Sand by 9-12 16% −2
- Sand by 12+ 13% —
- Sand by 0-3 9% —
- Turek by 0-3 1% −3
- Turek by 3+ 1% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
Sand by 6-9, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 31% · Oct 28: 31% · Oct 29: 31% · Oct 30: 31% · Oct 31: 32% · Nov 1: 32% · Nov 2: 34% · Nov 3: 34%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Sand by 6-9; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Rob Sand's margin in the Iowa governor election minus Josh Turek's margin in the Iowa U.S. Senate election is between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number.
Settlement sources: Iowa Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗