The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Before Jul 1, 2027 27% −7
- Before Jan 1, 2027 9.6% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$890K
Favourite, 7 days+1.5 pts
Before Jul 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 31% · Sep 29: 27% · Sep 30: 26% · Oct 1: 27% · Oct 2: 30% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 26% · Oct 5: 27%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jul 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
Settlement sources: Samuel Alito; Supreme Court; Politico; Reuters; the Associated Press; the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post
See it on Kalshi ↗