The odds
as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 61% −13
- Before Nov 21, 2026 50% −21
- Before Nov 14, 2026 28% −25
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 72% · Oct 30: 69% · Oct 31: 69% · Nov 1: 74% · Nov 2: 77% · Nov 3: 75% · Nov 4: 56% · Nov 5: 61%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the House has conducted any recorded vote on any resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth, any motion to table, refer, or postpone such a resolution, or any special rule that specifically refers to such a resolution after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This includes: Roll call votes Recorded votes Yea-and-nay votes Electronic votes (in the House) Division/standing votes The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Voice votes where individual member positions are not recorded, including a motion to table, refer, or postpone that is agreed to by voice vote Unanimous consent agreements without a recorded vote Votes in committee, including any vote of the House Judiciary Committee Procedural determinations by the presiding officer, including a ruling on whether a resolution is privileged, and any vote on an appeal of such a ruling Deemed passage without an actual vote A Member giving notice of intent to offer, reading, or introducing a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth A vote on adjourning or recessing, or on any special rule or other measure that does not specifically refer to a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth A vote on an amendment to a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth A vote on a resolution that only authorizes or directs an impeachment inquiry or investigation of Pete Hegseth For clarity, each of the following DOES satisfy the Payout Criterion, whatever the outcome of the vote: A vote on adopting a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth, or on any article of it A vote on a motion to table, refer, or postpone a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth A vote on whether the House will consider a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth, or on ordering the previous question on it A vote on a special rule that specifically refers to a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth, including ordering the previous question on that rule, whether the rule provides for the resolution's consideration, lays it on the table, refers it, or delays or waives the time for its consideration
Settlement sources: United States House of Representatives; Congressional Record
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