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PolymarketCloses October 4, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?

2-4% leads at >99% (all but certain, by the price) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC. It's up 32 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC
  • 2-4% >99% +32
  • <2% <1% −10
  • 4-6% <1% −16
  • 6-8% <1% −3.8
  • 8%+ <1% −4
Traded today$108K
Traded in all$449K
Favourite, 7 days+58 pts

2-4%, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 5100%

Sep 28: 43% · Sep 29: 44% · Sep 30: 47% · Oct 1: 45% · Oct 2: 49% · Oct 3: 68% · Oct 4: >99% · Oct 5: >99%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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