The odds
as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC- James Talarico 64% −1
- Ken Paxton 36% −2
Traded today$431K
Traded in all$18.3M
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
James Talarico, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 60% · Sep 29: 60% · Sep 30: 63% · Oct 1: 65% · Oct 2: 64% · Oct 3: 66% · Oct 4: 65% · Oct 5: 64%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, James Talarico; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗