The odds
as of Nov 4, 13:16 UTC- Above 84 94% —
- Above 86 79% —
- Above 88 71% —
- Above 90 73% —
- Above 92 96% −1.5
- Above 94 96% +8
- Above 96 89% —
- Above 98 78% −5
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+45 pts
Above 92, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 62% · Nov 3: 98% · Nov 4: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 92; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Soda point of sale spend array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 92, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Soda Brands Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 2nd. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value. The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Soda Brands Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=c6eb419d-6f74-41c4-ab20-6c34602f593f&entity=Soda+Brands. The underlying metric is convenience-store point-of-sale spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Dr. Pepper, Sprite, each weighted 1/5. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured convenience-store point-of-sale spend equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗