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PolymarketCloses December 10, 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

The market puts it at 78% — about 8 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's up 5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • Chance of yes 78% +5
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$541K
Yes, 7 days−13 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 578%

Sep 28: 91% · Sep 29: 86% · Sep 30: 82% · Oct 1: 78% · Oct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 73% · Oct 4: 76% · Oct 5: 78%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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