The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- At least 44% 89% −5
- At least 46% 10% −14
- At least 48% 4% −62
- At least 50% 2% −47
- At least 52% 3.5% −43
- At least 54% 2% −18
- At least 56% 2% −17
- At least 58% 1.5% −16
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts
At least 44%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 94% · Nov 3: 86% · Nov 4: 54%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 44%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Marsha Blackburn ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Nashville, TN
See it on Kalshi ↗