The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- At least 42% 94% −88
- At least 44% 43% −56
- At least 46% 3.5% −79
- At least 47% 1.5% −71
- At least 48% 1.5% −55
- At least 49% 1.5% −40
- At least 50% 1.5% −26
- At least 52% 1.5% −10
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$38K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
At least 42%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 98% · Oct 28: 98% · Oct 29: 98% · Oct 30: 98% · Oct 31: 98% · Nov 2: 98% · Nov 3: 98% · Nov 4: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 42%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate election is 42% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Ken Paxton ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Austin, TX
See it on Kalshi ↗