The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Iowa 18% −2
- Texas 13% −4
- Kansas 9.5% —
- Maine 9.1% —
- Ohio 8.4% —
- Nebraska 8.2% +0.7
- Alaska 7% —
- Michigan 5.8% −3
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$688K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Iowa, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 13% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 16% · Oct 3: 18% · Oct 4: 18% · Oct 5: 18%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Iowa; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Settlement sources: official state or local election division websites; the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ; official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Bloomberg News; CNN; NBC News; ABC News; CBS News; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post; Politico; FiveThirtyEight; Ballotpedia
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