The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Democrats, 8 to 10% 28% −1
- Democrats, 10 to 12% 23% +2
- Democrats, 6 to 8% 19% —
- Democrats, 12 to 14% 9.3% +1
- Democrats, 4 to 6% 8.8% —
- Republicans win 5.1% —
- Democrats, 2 to 4% 5.1% —
- Democrats, 14 to 16% 2.9% —
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$2.1M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Democrats, 8 to 10%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 28% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 28% · Oct 1: 28% · Oct 2: 28% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 28% · Oct 5: 28%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democrats, 8 to 10%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Settlement sources: the Clerk of the House
See it on Kalshi ↗