The odds
as of Nov 3, 19:14 UTC- Before January 20, 2029 46% +3
- Before 2028 25% —
- Before 2027 4.5% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$63K
Favourite, 7 days+19 pts
Before January 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 27% · Oct 28: 28% · Oct 29: 27% · Oct 30: 41% · Oct 31: 45% · Nov 1: 41% · Nov 2: 42% · Nov 3: 41%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before January 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Modifications to budget reconciliation rules are not encompassed and do not resolve the market to Yes. See full rules for examples.
Settlement sources: U.S. Senate; Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗