The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- Nithya Raman, 14-16% 84% +81
- Nithya Raman, 12-14% 83% +80
- Nithya Raman, 0-2% 43% +30
- Nithya Raman, 2-4% 17% +10
- Karen Bass, 2-4% 13% +3
- Karen Bass, 0-2% 11% −1
- Nithya Raman, 8-10% 7% +2
- Nithya Raman, 4-6% 4% −3
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+80 pts
Nithya Raman, 14-16%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 4% · Oct 29: 3.5% · Oct 30: 3.5% · Oct 31: 3.5% · Nov 1: 3.5% · Nov 2: 3% · Nov 3: 2.5% · Nov 4: 84%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Nithya Raman, 14-16%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 14% to 16%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Settlement sources: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk
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