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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will the U.S. move to revoke Ilhan Omar's citizenship in 2026?

The market puts it at 12% — a long shot, about one in 8 — on Kalshi, as of Nov 6, 07:18 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 12% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 6, 07:18 UTC
  • Chance of yes 12% +1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$25K
Yes, 7 days−31 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 29Nov 612%

Oct 30: 41% · Oct 31: 36% · Nov 1: 35% · Nov 2: 34% · Nov 3: 32% · Nov 4: 17% · Nov 5: 11% · Nov 6: 12%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If the U.S. government sues Ilhan Omar to revoke her U.S. citizenship before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A lawsuit or some other formal adversarial legal process (such as pre-complaint discovery or an arbitration claim) is encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The following also count: A federal criminal charge for unlawfully procuring her naturalization or citizenship, including a false statement made to obtain it (such as under 18 U.S.C. 1425), or a conspiracy to do so A USCIS or DHS notice of intent to cancel her certificate of citizenship, certificate of naturalization, or another citizenship document or record (8 U.S.C. 1453) A removal, civil or immigration-court proceeding brought by the U.S. government asserting that she is not a U.S. citizen The following do NOT count: Public statements or announcements of intent Search warrants, grand jury subpoenas, target letters and seizures of property The opening or continuation of an investigation Passport actions Proceedings Omar brings, even if the government contests her citizenship in them Other criminal charges, including charges for later claims of citizenship such as passport or voting statements

Settlement sources: U.S. Department of Justice; PACER; The New York Times; Associated Press; Reuters; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post; Axios; Politico

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