The odds
as of Oct 31, 11:13 UTC- Anthropic 93% −2
- Discord 8% +4
- Skims 5% —
- Gopuff 5% —
- Kraken 4% —
- DeepSeek 4% —
- Bloomberg 4% —
- Oura 3.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$557
Traded in all$2.1M
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts
Anthropic, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 24: 85% · Oct 25: 80% · Oct 26: 94% · Oct 27: 94% · Oct 28: 93% · Oct 29: 93% · Oct 30: 92% · Oct 31: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Anthropic; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg; BBC; ABC; Reuters; CNBC; Financial Times
See it on Kalshi ↗