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PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 30 leads at 95% (about 10 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC.

November 30 95%

The odds

as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC
  • November 30 95% —
  • November 15 86% +1
  • November 12 55% +5
  • November 7 22% −3.5
  • November 3 4% −3.5
  • October 31 3.1% −0.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$638
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts

November 30, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 16Oct 2495%

Oct 17: 94% · Oct 18: 94% · Oct 19: 94% · Oct 20: 97% · Oct 21: 97% · Oct 22: 95% · Oct 23: 95% · Oct 24: 95%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility, will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will arrive, is en route, or is heading to the Middle East will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying arrival has occurred. A qualifying arrival will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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