The odds
as of Nov 6, 07:18 UTC- James Fishback 78% +42
- Ron DeSantis 51% +2
- Jensen Huang 29% —
- Jeff Bezos 20% −9
- Benjamin Netanyahu 19% −7
- Mark Zuckerberg 18% —
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy 17% —
- Giorgia Meloni 12% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$73K
Favourite, 7 days+72 pts
James Fishback, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 5.6% · Oct 31: 5.7% · Nov 1: 5.7% · Nov 2: 5.9% · Nov 3: 6.2% · Nov 4: 6.6% · Nov 5: 6.8% · Nov 6: 5.8%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, James Fishback; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If James Fishback is reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 to have visited Mar-a-Lago, then the market resolves to Yes. Reporting will be encompassed by this Payout Criterion even if the reported visit is before Issuance as long as the visit was not previously reported. Reporting also includes reporting on other sources, e.g. if The New York Times report that Bloomberg reported a given person visited, or that Donald Trump said someone has visited, that would also be encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗