The odds
as of Nov 12, 16:19 UTC- November 13 20% +7
- November 11 16% −2
- November 14 16% —
- November 15 16% —
- November 12 11% −5
- November 9 8.5% +1
- November 10 4.5% +4
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−30 pts
November 13, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 6: 50% · Nov 7: 16% · Nov 8: 16% · Nov 9: 16% · Nov 10: 17% · Nov 11: 17% · Nov 12: 20%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, November 13; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Nov 13, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗