Moving
Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+88Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 7.3% ▼−80Wyoming margin of victory Gray, 22+ pts 4.9% ▼−79Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 85% ▲+77Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 84% ▲+74Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+67Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… James Talarico 12% ▼−65How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? 8 96% ▲+61Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Boebert, 1+ pts 3.9% ▼−60Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democr… Democratic sweep 91% ▲+58North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory Murphy, 1+ pts 3% ▼−57Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 6-8% 59% ▲+53Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+53Kortrijk vs Mechelen Mechelen 90% ▲+51
PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?

November 6 leads at 31% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC. It's up 8.5 points in the last 24 hours.

November 6 31% ▲ 8.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC
  • November 6 31% +8.5
  • November 12 17% +1.7
  • November 9 12% +2
  • November 10 9.6% +4.7
  • November 11 8.3% +5.3
  • November 5 6.5% −14
  • No release by November 30 6.5% −6
  • November 18 6.1% −4
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+22 pts

November 6, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 3Nov 431%

Nov 3: 21% · Nov 4: 31%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →