The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Rebeca Grynspan 62% −4
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 17% —
- Macky Sall 13% —
- Olara Otunnu 10% —
- Michelle Bachelet 8% —
- Rafael Grossi 6.5% —
- Mia Mottley 4% —
- Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 4% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$95K
Favourite, 7 days+9.5 pts
Rebeca Grynspan, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 54% · Sep 29: 55% · Sep 30: 72% · Oct 1: 61% · Oct 2: 65% · Oct 3: 63% · Oct 4: 63% · Oct 5: 63%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Rebeca Grynspan; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Rebeca Grynspan is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market.
Settlement sources: The UN
See it on Kalshi ↗