The odds
as of Oct 6, 05:26 UTC- Above 30 24% +3
- Above 40 22% −4
- Above 50 14% —
- Above 60 11% −3
- Above 70 7.5% —
- Above 80 11% +25
- Above 90 4.5% —
- Above 100 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$191K
Favourite, 7 days−6 pts
Above 30, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 29% · Oct 1: 29% · Oct 2: 23% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 28% · Oct 5: 24% · Oct 6: 24%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 30; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗