The odds
as of Oct 6, 12:36 UTC- Protect College Sports Act 45% −3
- Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 45% —
- ADS-B revenue-use restriction 29% —
- AI-chip export licensing 26% +4
- Export-control chip security 26% −10
- Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act 19% —
- Insulin cost cap 18% —
- Railway safety bill 14% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$615K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts
Protect College Sports Act, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 48% · Sep 30: 49% · Oct 1: 45% · Oct 2: 47% · Oct 3: 47% · Oct 4: 47% · Oct 5: 47% · Oct 6: 45%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Protect College Sports Act; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify. Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗