Moving
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 2027 leads at 62% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC. It's down 13 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC
  • December 31, 2027 62% −13
  • December 31, 2026 24% −1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$385K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts

December 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 562%

Sep 28: 74% · Sep 29: 72% · Sep 30: 77% · Oct 1: 75% · Oct 2: 75% · Oct 3: 75% · Oct 4: 75% · Oct 5: 62%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →