The odds
as of Oct 7, 01:04 UTC- Before 2035 53% +8
- Before 2032 47% —
- Before 2030 32% +7
- Before 2028 6.5% +3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$141K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Before 2035, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 47% · Oct 1: 47% · Oct 2: 47% · Oct 3: 47% · Oct 4: 47% · Oct 5: 47% · Oct 6: 51% · Oct 7: 53%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2035; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for the Riemann hypothesis before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award.
Settlement sources: the Clay Mathematics Institute
See it on Kalshi ↗