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Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+92Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent At least 44% 11% ▼−88Michigan Senate election: Mike Rogers vote percent At least 46% 12% ▼−86Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 86% ▲+74Mississippi Senate winner? Scott Colom 86% ▲+72Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 81% ▲+72Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… Abdul El-Sayed 81% ▲+70How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after th… 56 74% ▲+67Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+66Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls? Yes 95% ▲+65How many House seats will Democrats win in Nevada? 4 96% ▲+64How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after … Below 45 80% ▲+62Tennessee Governor election: Marsha Blackburn vote… At least 48% 3.5% ▼−62Will the filibuster be weakened? Before 2028 85% ▲+60
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 31 leads at 35% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 4, 15:18 UTC. It's up 3 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 35% ▲ 3 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 15:18 UTC
  • December 31 35% +3
  • November 30 11% +1.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 27Nov 435%

Oct 28: 44% · Oct 29: 35% · Oct 30: 39% · Oct 31: 29% · Nov 1: 32% · Nov 2: 34% · Nov 3: 33% · Nov 4: 35%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Bilozerske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.532023° N, 37.058608° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Settlement sources: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

See it on Polymarket ↗

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