Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls?

If Abdul El-Sayed's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was El-Sayed 50.3%, Rogers 45.0% (El-Sayed +5.3), so Abdul El-Sayed's polling margin is +5.3 points. Abdul El-Sayed outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than +5.3 points. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.