The odds
as of Nov 5, 23:15 UTC- March 31 4.3% −1
- December 31 2.3% −1.3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$52K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
March 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 29: 4.7% · Oct 30: 4.2% · Oct 31: 6.7% · Nov 1: 5.1% · Nov 2: 4.9% · Nov 3: 4.6% · Nov 4: 5.3% · Nov 5: 4.3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗