The odds
as of Oct 29, 04:22 UTC- December 31 19% −2.5
- November 30 7.5% −4
- October 31 1.7% −2.4
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+1.5 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 22: 17% · Oct 23: 13% · Oct 24: 19% · Oct 25: 17% · Oct 26: 19% · Oct 27: 22% · Oct 28: 22% · Oct 29: 19%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗