Moving
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October? Meta 5.9% ▼−85Top AI model this month gemini-4-argon-high 3% ▼−84Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October? Google 86% ▲+83Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? Alibaba 82% ▲+79Who will be the next President of the Federal Rese… Michael Faulkender 95% ▲+72Which countries will qualify for LA28 men's lacros… Ireland 77% ▲+70Luh Leakyz Vol. 1: First Week Album Equivalent Units Above 20K 25% ▼−63Texas gas prices in Oct 2026 Above 3.7000 85% ▲+52Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026? 4+ 86% ▲+51Los Angeles L vs Los Angeles C: Pts + Reb + Ast Darius Garland: 30+ 91% ▲+49Fed decision in Oct 2027? Fed maintains rate 68% ▼−48Seattle vs Houston Seattle 8.5% ▼−47San Jose vs Colorado Colorado 77% ▲+46Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs San Diego FC: Correct Sc… Vancouver Whitecaps FC wins 4-0 49% ▲+46
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 31 leads at 19% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 29, 04:22 UTC. It's down 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 19% ▼ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 29, 04:22 UTC
  • December 31 19% −2.5
  • November 30 7.5% −4
  • October 31 1.7% −2.4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$14K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+1.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2919%

Oct 22: 17% · Oct 23: 13% · Oct 24: 19% · Oct 25: 17% · Oct 26: 19% · Oct 27: 22% · Oct 28: 22% · Oct 29: 19%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Economy

More markets like this

All →