The odds
as of Oct 21, 21:22 UTC- Above $6.0000 85% −3
- Above $6.1000 75% +46
- Above $6.2000 63% —
- Above $6.3000 65% +61
- Above $6.5000 18% −79
- Above $6.6000 22% −62
- Above $6.7000 22% −9
- Above $6.8000 23% −65
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+21 pts
Above $6.0000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 13: 90% · Oct 14: 64% · Oct 15: 64% · Oct 16: 28% · Oct 17: 63% · Oct 18: 98% · Oct 20: 88% · Oct 21: 87%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $6.0000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Alaska average diesel price on October 31, 2026 is strictly above $6.0000 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗