The odds
as of Oct 27, 15:27 UTC- Fed maintains rate 88% +5
- Cut 25bps 7.5% −1
- Hike 25bps 3.5% +4
- Cut >25bps 2% —
- Hike >25bps 1.5% —
Traded today$551
Traded in all$166K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Fed maintains rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 90% · Oct 21: 85% · Oct 22: 81% · Oct 23: 86% · Oct 24: 85% · Oct 25: 85% · Oct 26: 86% · Oct 27: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Fed maintains rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗