The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- gemini-4-argon-high 64% +10
- claude-opus-5.5-high 1% −1
- claude-fable-5.1-max 1% —
Traded today$535
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−25 pts
gemini-4-argon-high, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 80% · Oct 1: 69% · Oct 2: 61% · Oct 3: 41% · Oct 4: 78% · Oct 5: 64%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, gemini-4-argon-high; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗