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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

3 leads at 40% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 10:29 UTC. It's up 6 points in the last 24 hours.

3 40% ▲ 6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 13, 10:29 UTC
  • 3 40% +6
  • 2 35% −1
  • 4+ 22% −5
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+7.5 pts

3, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 1340%

Oct 6: 28% · Oct 7: 26% · Oct 8: 24% · Oct 9: 26% · Oct 10: 25% · Oct 11: 25% · Oct 12: 52% · Oct 13: 40%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
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