Moving
"You Can See Everything" total domestic gross by N… 75-100M 22% ▼−74New Zealand general election winner? National 93% ▲+60NHL: Players to Record 50+ Goals Martin Necas 51% ▲+47USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...? November 15 46% ▲+41Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 8-10% 96% ▲+40When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO? Before Jan 1, 2029 53% ▼−32Cristina Bucsa / Nicole Melichar-Martinez vs Ellen… Cristina Bucsa / Nicole Melichar-Martinez 95% ▲+31How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? $75B to $85B 36% ▲+28Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November? OpenAI 41% ▲+25Pro Football Next Coach Out Jim Harbaugh 32% ▲+24Tampa Bay vs Chicago Tampa Bay 5.5% ▼−23Comeback Player of the Year Winner? Tank Dell 25% ▲+23Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 28% ▼−22Loukopoulos vs Estephan Konstantinos Loukopoulos 68% ▲+21
PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?

No release by November 30 leads at 60% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC. It's up 22 points in the last 24 hours.

No release by November 30 60% ▲ 22 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC
  • No release by November 30 60% +22
  • November 12 8% −19
  • November 23 7.6% —
  • November 24 7.5% —
  • November 9 5.4% —
  • November 15 4.8% —
  • November 17 4.4% —
  • November 14 4% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+36 pts

No release by November 30, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 1Nov 960%

Nov 2: 33% · Nov 3: 36% · Nov 4: 36% · Nov 5: 43% · Nov 6: 37% · Nov 7: 39% · Nov 8: 53% · Nov 9: 60%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

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