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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) leads at 96% (about 10 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • 0 (0 bps) 96% —
  • 1 (25 bps) 1.8% —
  • 2 (50 bps) <1% —
  • 3 (75 bps) <1% —
  • 4 (100 bps) <1% —
  • 5 (125 bps) <1% —
  • 6 (150 bps) <1% —
  • 7 (175 bps) <1% —
Traded today$17K
Traded in all$53.9M
Favourite, 7 days−1.4 pts

0 (0 bps), the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 596%

Sep 28: 97% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 97% · Oct 1: 97% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 96% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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