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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?

December 31, 2026 leads at 3.5% (a long shot, about one in 29) on Polymarket, as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31, 2026 3.5% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC
  • December 31, 2026 3.5% −9
  • November 2, 2026 1.8% −2.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$14K
Traded in all$43K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts

December 31, 2026, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 94%

Oct 2: 11% · Oct 3: 11% · Oct 4: 11% · Oct 5: 12% · Oct 6: 12% · Oct 7: 13% · Oct 8: 13% · Oct 9: 3.7%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice. Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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