The odds
as of Oct 30, 15:18 UTC- Before Nov 16, 2026 64% +57
- Before Dec 1, 2026 10% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 4% —
- Before Oct 1, 2026 3% —
- Before Oct 16, 2026 2% —
- Before Sep 16, 2026 1% —
- Before Nov 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$62K
Favourite, 7 days+54 pts
Before Nov 16, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 10% · Oct 24: 10% · Oct 26: 8.5% · Oct 27: 8.5% · Oct 28: 8.5% · Oct 29: 8% · Oct 30: 64%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Nov 16, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: Anthropic
See it on Kalshi ↗