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PolymarketCloses March 18, 2027

Fed Decision in March?

25 bps increase leads at 48% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

25 bps increase 48% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC
  • 25 bps increase 48% +1
  • No change 45% +1.5
  • 25 bps decrease 4.5% −1
  • 50+ bps decrease 3.3% +1.4
  • 50+ bps increase 1.9% −3.6
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+9.5 pts

25 bps increase, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 27Oct 2948%

Oct 27: 56% · Oct 28: 43% · Oct 29: 48%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Settlement sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

See it on Polymarket ↗

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