The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Above 1,600 units 79% −6
- Above 1,700 units 76% −1
- Above 1,800 units 64% —
- Above 1,900 units 39% −4
- Above 2,000 units 25% −12
- Above 2,100 units 17% −10
- Above 2,200 units 9.5% −15
- Above 2,300 units 9% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$17K
Traded in all$115K
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts
Above 1,600 units, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 84% · Sep 29: 84% · Sep 30: 84% · Oct 1: 84% · Oct 2: 84% · Oct 3: 84% · Oct 4: 79% · Oct 5: 79%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 1,600 units; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 1,600 units, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont, across all structure types. Resolution will use the first finalized annual 2026 figure published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Preliminary monthly and year-to-date estimates will not determine the market.
Settlement sources: U.S. Census Bureau
See it on Kalshi ↗