The odds
as of Oct 15, 05:24 UTC- 200+ 28% −2
- 180-199 24% +5.7
- 160-179 20% −3
- 140-159 18% +4
- 120-139 7% −5.3
- 100-119 1.7% −5.3
- 80-99 <1% −2
- 60-79 <1% −2
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts
200+, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 10: 24% · Oct 11: 16% · Oct 12: 19% · Oct 13: 26% · Oct 14: 29% · Oct 15: 28%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Settlement sources: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
See it on Polymarket ↗