The odds
as of Oct 7, 14:27 UTC- Above 30,000 90% —
- Above 32,000 71% —
- Above 34,000 18% —
- Above 36,000 5.5% —
- Above 38,000 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$80K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Above 30,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 92% · Oct 1: 90% · Oct 2: 90% · Oct 3: 90% · Oct 4: 90% · Oct 5: 90% · Oct 6: 90% · Oct 7: 90%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 30,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Colorado in 2026 is above 30,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of new privately owned residential housing units authorized by building permits in Colorado. This counts housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in 1-unit, 2-unit, 3-unit, 4-unit, and 5-or-more-unit structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: U.S. Census Bureau
See it on Kalshi ↗