The odds
as of Oct 14, 21:21 UTC- Chance of yes 95% +22
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$25K
Yes, 7 days+11 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 84% · Oct 8: 87% · Oct 9: 92% · Oct 10: 92% · Oct 11: 92% · Oct 12: 80% · Oct 13: 70% · Oct 14: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have a debate before Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A debate counts only if both candidates are present at the same time, in person or via live connection; the event is announced as a debate or similar confrontational discussion format; the candidates respond to each other's positions through direct dialogue or moderated questions; and the event is intended for public viewing. Joint press conferences, sequential interviews or town halls where the candidates appear separately, panel discussions with more than two primary participants, and events where either candidate fails to appear or appears only by pre-recorded video do not count.
Settlement sources: Fox News; MSNBC; C-SPAN; ABC; CBS; Lula; Flávio Bolsonaro; their official campaigns or representatives; NBC; The New York Times; CNN; The Wall Street Journal; Reuters; The Information; Axios; Semafor; Politico; The Washington Post; Bloomberg News; official website or social media accounts of any organization hosting the debate; the Associated Press; YouTube
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