The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- No change 88% +5.5
- 25 bps increase 12% −3
- 50+ bps increase <1% —
- 50+ bps decrease <1% —
- 25 bps decrease <1% —
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$187K
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts
No change, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 71% · Sep 29: 78% · Sep 30: 83% · Oct 1: 84% · Oct 2: 85% · Oct 3: 82% · Oct 4: 86% · Oct 5: 88%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThe Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
See it on Polymarket ↗