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PolymarketCloses January 4, 2027

AP calls the House by...?

December 31, 11:59 PM leads at 96% (about 10 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 27, 06:39 UTC. It's down 3 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31, 11:59 PM 96% ▼ 3 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 27, 06:39 UTC
  • December 31, 11:59 PM 96% −3
  • November 30, 11:59 PM 96% −0.6
  • November 15, 11:59 PM 94% −3.5
  • November 13, 11:59 PM 92% −6
  • November 6, 11:59 PM 89% −7
  • November 10, 11:59 PM 88% −9.4
  • November 5, 11:59 PM 83% −7.3
  • November 4, 11:59 PM 83% −5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$12K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts

December 31, 11:59 PM, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2796%

Oct 21: 92% · Oct 22: >99% · Oct 23: >99% · Oct 24: >99% · Oct 25: 99% · Oct 26: 96% · Oct 27: 96%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count. Under condition 1, no subsequent withdrawal of a control call will be relevant to this market. Under condition 2, this market will remain open for one hour following the race call that brings a party’s standing calls to 218. If, within that hour, the Associated Press retracts any of those calls such that the party’s standing calls fall below 218, condition 2 will not be considered satisfied by that call. If no such retraction occurs within the hour, condition 2 will be considered satisfied as of the time of the 218th call, regardless of any later retraction. For resolution, the relevant time is the time of the 218th call, not the end of the one-hour period. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press.
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